Effects of international political crises on national economies: Effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Türkiye's economy as a case study

In the last two decades, the world economy has faced numerous regional and global challenges, including the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. These crises have had a negative impact on the global economy, but have also provided opportunities for some countries. In addition to the crises of the past, the post-pandemic economies had to face a tougher challenge as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022. In this period, a stagflationary environment prevailed in world economies, with inflation increasing on the one hand and growth declining on the other. Türkiye is inevitably affected by this crisis due to its geographical proximity to the countries involved in the war and its commercial relations and strategic cooperation in the tourism, agriculture, energy and defense sectors. The war led to a spike in food inflation in Türkiye, an increase in the exchange rate and record high energy prices. On the other hand, Turkish UAVs and UCAVs were purchased by Ukraine and used against Russia. The recognition of Türkiye's military technology has increased. By these means, Türkiye's exports in the military industry increased and new agreements were signed with other countries. Similarly, the importance of the Middle Corridor through Türkiye has increased due to the diversion of transportation activities through the Northern Corridor as a result of the sanctions against Russia. An increase has been observed in the transportation of goods via Türkiye. The aim of this study is to investigate how international political conflicts and crises affect interdependent national economies in states that have become more dependent on the globalization process. In this framework, as a case study, the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Turkish economy within the scope of 5 sectors are analyzed. This study concludes that the war has created various difficulties for some sectors of the Turkish economy, but at the same time, the economic indicators of some sectors have been positively affected by the war.