Effects of the use of electric vehicles in road transport on the nationally determined contribution of Türkiye

As of 2022, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached 50.12 Gt CO2 -eq, with approximately 76% of these emissions originating from energy production activities based on the combustion of fossil fuels. The transportation sector, which is evaluated within the energy sector, accounts for approximately 16% of total global emissions. The Paris Agreement, which was adopted in 2015, aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to restrict the rise to 1.5°C. However, in 2024, the global average surface temperature was recorded as 1.55 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, marking the first time the 1.5 °C threshold set out in the Paris Agreement has been exceeded. The agreement is also based on a cycle that requires countries to submit more ambitious climate actions, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), every five years. Türkiye ratified the UNFCCC in 2004 and became a party the Paris Agreement in 2021. Türkiye has announced an objective of net zero emissions by 2053 and has updated its NDC by increasing its 2030 emissions reduction target from 21% to 41% compared to business-as-usual scenario. Türkiye has outlined specific policies for the transport sector in its NDC. This thesis undertakes an analysis of the impact of electrical passenger cars penetration on GHG emissions in Türkiye and assesses the contribution of this transformation to Türkiye's NDC targets for 2030. In this context, the primary objective was to calculate the GHG emissions from passenger cars in 2022. The existing passenger car fleet was then classified according to fuel type, vehicle segment, and Euro emission standard. The calculation of emission and energy consumption values was conducted utilizing the COPERT 5 model. Subsequently, a regression model incorporating variables such as GDP, population, and urbanization rate was used to project the vehicle fleet for 2030, which was then disaggregated using the same parameters. The scenario analysis encompassed four primary scenarios. The Reference Scenario, the NDC Scenario, the High Scenario, and the Low Scenario. The findings indicate that the NDC scenario projects a reduction of 5.38 Mt CO₂ -eq compared to the reference scenario. This reduction corresponds to a 13% decrease, indicating that approximately 36% of the targeted 14.98 Mt emission reduction in the transportation sector could be achieved solely through electric passenger cars. The findings suggest that electric vehicle policies have the potential to deliver additional emission reductions under Türkiye's future NDCs. This thesis introduces a novel, empirically grounded approach by employing the COPERT 5 model in combination with field-based and socioeconomic data to estimate passenger car emissions in Türkiye. By providing a detailed and policy-relevant analysis aligned with the NDC, it demonstrates the emission reduction potential of electric vehicles and contributes to the development of targeted climate actions in the transport sector.