GENeSYS-MOD Türkiye: Türkiye makro enerji sisteminin düşük karbonlu geleceği için nicel senaryolar

Global energy consumption is increasing constantly. Countries are most affected economically and environmentally by these changes. A change in the supply-demand balance in the energy sector may result in an increase or decrease in the price of energy and investments made in the energy sector to meet the rising demand are economic effects. Additionally, the sustainability of energy systems is getting more significant as a result of these environmental effects of chosen energy sources. As a result of the changes, energy system models are widely used to create strategic energy policies, environmental goals, and technical advancements. The first oil crisis that occurred in 1973 is defined by excessive price increase and insufficient petroleum supply on the global market. As a result of the crisis, there is an increase in interest in energy supply that is based on multiple sources, energy efficiency, and energy conservation. Consequently, a significant increase in the quantity and complexity of energy system models used for analyzing the change is observed. The purpose of this thesis is to better provide insights and evaluate how the Turkish energy sector will change over time, as well as to provide the country with the necessary policy decisions based on realistic, meaningful, and reliable findings. In this context, the quantitative scenarios for low-carbon futures of the Turkish energy system are analyzed at aggregated (country level) and regionally disaggregated (NUTS-1 level) levels. Four different scenarios are used for the future of Turkish energy system. They are quantified and implemented for the Turkish energy system using the open-source, "bottom-up" structure global energy system model, GENeSYS-MOD v3.0. All scenario results at both levels are compared. Disaggregating ensures more investment in photovoltaic technologies, more hydrogen generation and usage by 2050 and integration of electricity and hydrogen storage systems as early as 2025. The insights for the Turkish energy system are improved with the disaggregated model results. The major reason for these differences is the better estimation of regional renewable capacity factors (wind and solar) in the disaggregated level compared to aggregated level.