J-eğrisi hipotezi: Afganistan örneği

This thesis investigates both the short- and long-term effects of exchange rate depreciation on the trade balance of Afghanistan for the period from 2005:1 to 2017:12. We adopt the vector auto regression (VAR) model and Cholesky decomposition analysis to examine the effect of a positive exchange rate shock (depreciation) on exports, imports, and consequently the trade balance. Our findings reveal that a positive exchange rate shock has a strong effect on imports while its effect on exports is not significant. Therefore, our results suggest that exchange rate depreciation improves the trade balance by decreasing imports, which indicates the existence of the J-curve pattern in Afghanistan.