Multiple criteria macro-l application in macroergonomic enterprise risk management and systematic project

Organizations can achieve their strategic goals by performing holistic risk analysis aligned with corporate approaches and adopting a human-oriented agile approach while creating their project portfolio. In this study, it is aimed to meet this requirement by managing risk goals in the nature of opportunity and threat. Therefore; risk based model was developed and detailed in practice by taking macroergonomy, project management and enterprise risk management approaches together. In accordance with organizational constraints and risk goals; this study is structured in three sections in order to create the best project portfolio among the evaluated projects. In the first part of the study, "Multiple Criteria Macro-L Risk Analysis Framework" was developed to form the basis for modeling enterprise risk appetite and tolerance values. The developed framework has made a critical contribution to the threat and opportunity-oriented evaluation of alternative projects. In the framework, 3 main risk categories, 15 sub-risk categories, 75 sub-threat value clusters, 15 opportunity evaluation criteria and 15 key opportunity indicators were used. The macroergonomic risk analysis approach developed in this study aims to optimize the intersection of the human factors and work systems in a risk-oriented manner. Project portfolio management and enterprise risk management approaches have been taken into account for the first time in this study together with macroergonomic risks. Under conditions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, it is critical to include human factor and project portfolio management issues in risk analysis studies. In this respect, the developed risk management framework contributes to the literature. In the second part; The "Multi Criteria Macro-L Risk Analysis Method" was developed in order to overcome the competitive conditions where a feasible project portfolio cannot be formed with risk-oriented targets and organizational constraints. The details of the method developed on the basis of Goal Programming (GP) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods are described in the thesis. The mathematical model developed takes into account threat and opportunity targets with multiple criteria. During the evaluation process; the level of objectivity in the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been increased with the "Conversion Table for Key Opportunity Indicators to the 1-9 AHP Scale ". This developed feature highlights the proposed method in the literature. In the evaluation of the threats, probability and impact scales based on the developed framework were used. In order to adapt various user stories and alternative scenarios to the mathematical model, the goals of risk categories are associated with multi-criteria decision-making processes and system constraints are taken into account. In the last part of the study, details of the case study were presented in two phases. Experimental comparisons and detailed analyzes performed with representative project data for the defense industry revealed the superiority of the developed method.