Mathematical model of Lamas river daily flows

Lamas River has been used for years for the urban water supply and irrigation purposes. Since 19808s, certain planning and feasibility studies to exploit the hydroelectric potential of Lamas River are carried out. This study consists of modeling Kızılgeçit daily river flows, which can be used in planning, design and operation purposes of proposed water resource systems in the basin. In this respect, the alternative stationary and nonstationary mathematical models of daily flows at Kızılgeçit covering the period 1962-1994 have been investigated. Regarding the results of the study, due to the presence of a downward trend, none of the stationary models have been found satisfactory in representing the characteristics of the historical flows. Among the various nonstationary models applied, the ARIMA (3,1,0) model has been found satisfactory considering the correlogram and normalized spectrum of the residuals series. XC YÛKSEKÖÖR ETİM KUWJU)