Mevcut ve gelecek kentsel büyüme eğilimleri ve tarım alanlarına etkisinin uzaktan algılama ve CBS kullanarak belirlenmesi Erbil, Şanlıurfa ve Freiburg im Breisgau

Increasing built-up areas and urban sprawl are significant threats to agricultural, natural, and environmental lands around the world. The population is growing rapidly in our study areas due to natural growth, uncontrolled migration, and urbanization from the study areas, which has caused a random increase in the built-up area on agricultural lands and also affected the urban tropical environment. This study aims to evaluate the effects of urban expansion on agricultural lands and prediction for the future in study areas, by assessing changes in land use land cover (LULC) in Erbil, Sanliurfa, and Freiburg from 2000 to 2020. For this purpose, supervised maximum probability classification algorithms, LCM models, and MARKOV were used, using Landsat images for 2000, 2010, and 2020. After LULC classification, the results were validated, and the accuracy for 2000, 2010, and 2020 was greater than %75, respectively. The results showed that built-up areas increased in all study areas while agricultural land and grassland decreased. It has revealed that most urban expansion in the past decade (2010-2020) occurred on agricultural land, also after prediction for 2030 using the land change modeler (LCM) and Markov model. Similarly, urban areas have increased on agricultural lands and green lands. In this change, Erbil has lost more agricultural land and green areas, Şanlıurfa has lost medium amounts, but Freiburg has lost very little compared to other areas. Finally, the findings and recommendations of this study can be used to explain to stakeholders to formulate better policies and plans to control further urban expansion on agricultural lands.