Müzakere edilmiş tüm barış anlaşmaları nihai midir? Ruanda ve Burundi'de barışı yeniden tesis etmek ve sürdürmek

Intra-state conflicts have been on the rise since the end of the Second World War. The number of intra-state conflicts, especially including civil wars has been increasing since the end of the Cold War. These conflicts have been very intense especially in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Resolving these conflicts and settling the peace again need great efforts by the conflicting parties and third parties trying to help them to sit at a negotiation desk to agree on a negotiated, comprehensive agreement. However, a negotiated, comprehensive peace agreement does not necessarily mean a successful negotiation process. The main aim of this dissertation is to put forward that negotiation process is not a one-time deal bringing a fast solution for an intra-state conflict, yet it is a long process that could take years consisting of five main phases such as pre-negotiation, preparation, negotiation proper, implementation and post-negotiation. This study mainly aims to answer these two questions: Are all negotiated peace agreements are final? What are the factors influencing a successful negotiation process for intra-state conflicts? While answering these questions this study enjoys the theoretical perspective of negotiation theory that especially flourished in the 1990s. This study enjoys three different research methods for triangulation: case study, process tracing and crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA). Rwanda and Burundi are main cases subjected to case study and process tracing analyses. In addition, eight different countries like Burundi, Rwanda, Liberia, Sudan, Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, Guinea Bissau from Sub-Saharan Africa are used as cases for csQCA analysis. The datasets produced by the esteemed research institutes like the Peace Accords Matrix prepared by the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies of the University of Notre Dame, UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset Version 19.1 of the Department of Peace and Conflict Research of Uppsala University and Peace Agreements Database (PA-X) of the University of Edinburgh were used for analysis. Six main independent variables such as duration, conflict escalation, political and military power-sharing, inclusion of woman/gender related provisions, pre-negotiation agreements, and neighboring countries' involvement have been operationalized into main and sub-hypotheses and tested through empirical means in this study. The most significant outcome of this study is that duration is a necessary and sufficient condition for a successful negotiation process. The longer the process the more successful it is. Apart from main variables, this dissertation claims that witnessing of international community and institutions, mediator out of the region, the fame of the mediator, civil society's participation into the negotiation process are also important conditions for successful negotiation processes.