Estimation of factors affecting carbon emissions in OECD countries using STRIPAT model

Environmental problems and destruction threaten humanity on a global scale. The increase in fossil fuel consumption, driven by industrialization, leads to higher greenhouse gas concentrations. This situation causes changes in global temperature patterns and results in climate-related issues. Due to human activities, carbon is released into the atmosphere from natural sources, leading to carbon emissions. In the fight against climate change, it is important to reduce carbon emissions and to develop policies accordingly. In this study, OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) member countries are selected to limit the scope of analysis. The OECD has objectives such as promoting economic growth, financial stability, cooperation, and welfare, in addition to environmental protection and policies addressing environmental issues. The STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model is used in this study to identify and analyze the main factors affecting carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model includes variables for environmental impact (I), population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). In the model, CO₂ emissions are used as the dependent variable representing environmental impact. The independent variables include total population (P), GDP per capita (A), and two indicators for technology (T): renewable energy consumption and urbanization. Using data from 38 OECD countries for the period 1991–2021, the factors affecting CO₂ emissions are analyzed using panel data econometric methods within the STIRPAT framework. According to the Driscoll-Kraay fixed effects model estimates, increases in population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and urbanization have a positive and statistically significant effect on CO₂ emissions. In contrast, an increase in renewable energy consumption has a negative and statistically significant effect. These findings indicate that population growth, economic development, and urbanization contribute to rising CO₂ emissions, while renewable energy use helps to reduce them.