Automatic digital change detection analysis case study Burdur Lake and its surroundings

In this study, it was aimed to automatically monitor the climatic and human-induced changes occurring in and around Lake Burdur between 2013 and 2023 by using Landsat 8 satellite images with remote sensing techniques and to make a future-oriented estimation. In the study, 11 Landsat 8 images with the lowest annual cloud cover were analyzed and temporal changes in the lake area were revealed. Radiometric and geometric corrections were applied on the images, and then water and land areas were classified with support vector machines (SVM). The data obtained were converted into vector format and analyzed in geographical information systems environment and the annual changes in the lake area and shoreline movements were mapped numerically. The analyses showed that Lake Burdur lost approximately 12.4% of its area over the past eleven years. According to the linear regression-based prediction model, if the current decreasing trend continues, the lake area is projected to shrink to 106.8 km² by 2028 and to dry up completely by 2081. Remote sensing and automated analysis methods provided faster, more economical, and more reliable results compared to classical approaches, enabling the scientific identification of the morphological changes in the lake and their causal relationships. This study has demostrated that remote sensing and automated analysis techniques are effective and indispensable support tools for the monitoring and sustainable management of wetland ecosystems and future forecasting in Lake Burdur. The findings provide a scientific basis for environmental management and conservation policies at both regional and national scales.