The Russian Federation's non-linear war strategy in Ukraine and the West's security perception (1991-2015)

The attempt of the Russian Federation (RF) to annex Crimea in 2014 and the armed conflict environment that emerged in the Eastern Ukraine-Donbass region in 2014-2015 have brought about an important war debate in the literature. However, Russia's operations in Ukraine in 2014-2015 have an appearance of a war approach and strategic approach that has not been fully named or even agreed upon. This conflict (operations) process, which is mostly the subject of many studies in the Western literature as hybrid war-hybrid threat and Russian hybrid war, is also very rarely called non-linear war (NLW). Non-linear war (NLW) is not defined within a common theoretical framework, is evaluated with methodological differences and also includes terminological differences. This thesis tries to analyze the process shaped by Russia's operations in 2014-2015 by evaluating the non-linear relations and developments between Ukraine and Russia in the period of 1991-2014 from a retrospective perspective. In this context, the thesis names the process experienced in 2014-2015 as "non-linear war+strategy (NLW+S)" and evaluates it through some assumptions. The aim of the thesis focuses on the question "what is NLWS that enables Russia to be perceived as an actor and a threat again?". It aims to contribute to the literature by developing a theoretical-conceptual framework within the scope of NLWS and with an analytical approach on theoretical-doctrinal-military practice. The thesis, which includes some inferences on how NLWS should be interpreted in the strategic-operational-tactical context, seeks an answer to the question "what is NLWS?" and also questions what kind of an area of influence (discussion) it has created regarding the perception of war/threat/security in the Western axis. As a result, it is concluded that NLWS is a strategic fiction (or structure) that is shaped by operations of perception and military-political operations with an asymmetric approach, that should be read in terms of the bigger picture, that poses a threat to approaches of national-international security and that may turn into a security perception problem.