The reflections of the Syrian crisis on the trade relations between Turkey and Syria and the scenarios for possible post-war trade relations

Turkey and Syria, as neighboring countries, have had trade, political and economic ties for many years. Although these two countries are separated by a border line, kinship ties have been very strong throughout history. It is an indisputable fact that wars and crises are not only confided to the country in which they occur, but also expand to include all neighboring regions. Therefore, the relationship between Syria and Turkey has gone through multiple stages, and the political problems, crises and wars in Syria have had a great impact on the trade exchange between them. In this study, the trade movement between the two countries is presented in three time periods. While the first period before 2000 was characterized by instability in trade relations due to water problems and tense political events, several bilateral trade agreements were signed in the second period from 2000 to 2010, which positively affected the volume of trade between the two countries. The third period after 2011 coincided with the beginning of the war and the effects of the war on Turkey were mentioned by considering changes in the commercial mechanism of the war that lasted for many years in Syria. In particular, trade relations with Turkey have been badly damaged. But the establishment of the safe zone in northern Syria has been a qualitative turning point in the trajectory of bilateral trade and played an important role in reviving trade in the region. Again, considering the statistics obtained in this study, the Syrian war has negatively affected the main sectors that form the backbone of trade exchange between Syria and Turkey. By concluding that Turkey has incurred heavy losses, three expected scenarios have been displayed after the end of the crisis and the mechanisms of trade exchange between Turkey and Syria separately have been presented.