The effects of technological progress on unemployment and growth: An empiric review on journey to the industry 4.0

The aim of this thesis is to determine the position of Turkey in the context of Industry 4.0 by examining the effect of technological progress on unemployment and economic growth in Turkey. For this purpose, time series analysis was used in the study. The study includes annual data for Turkey for the period 1990-2021. In the study, a total of eight models were estimated, four to determine the effect of technological progress on unemployment and four to determine its effect on growth. For the first four models, the dependent variable is unemployment, the control variable is gross domestic product, and the independent variables representing technological progress are R&D expenditures, number of researchers, patents and communication computers, etc. (percentage of service exports). In the last four models, the dependent variable is gross domestic product per capita representing economic growth, the control variable is gross fixed capital formation, and the independent variables representing technological progress are the same. In order to determine the relationship between the variables, the Johansen Cointegration Test was used and those with a cointegration relationship were analyzed with the DOLS method, and those without a cointegration relationship were analyzed with the EKK method. According to the results of the empirical analysis, there is a meaningless relationship between unemployment and patent in the long run, communication, computer, etc. (percentage of service exports) and unemployment, a positive relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth in the long run, a meaningless relationship on economic growth and patents in the long run, communication computer etc. (percentage of service exports) and economic growth, a meaningless relationship between the number of researchers and unemployment in the short run, a meaningless relationship between R&D expenditures and unemployment in the short run, a meaningless relationship between the number of researchers and economic growth in the short run detected.