Tütün biraktirma politikalarinin modellenmesi: Türkiye'de bir vaka analizi

Tobacco use has been one of the deadliest epidemics that threaten the public health of the world. Although it is a well known fact that this epidemic is preventable, the significant number of countries still have to face with the destructive effects of it. Turkey is one of these countries with relatively high tobacco consumption rate. This situation leads Turkey to apply policies that can take tobacco use under control. Turkey has performed considerable progress for tobacco control with the help of the applied policies. Even thoughthe positive consequences of the applied policies for Turkey are apparent, we are still not sure which of themhave relatively higher effect to make tobacco usersthinking to quit. In this regard, the major objectives of this research thesis are (1) to model the tobacco control policies and effects of some other tobacco control associated factors that were investigated in Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) for Turkey (beliefs of people about damages of tobacco use on human health and health care providers' advices to quit smoking) using System Dynamics, (2) to analyze the effects of these policies and factors on current smokers in Turkey, and (3) to forecast the prevalence of tobacco use in Turkey for the year 2016. After system dynamics model has been setup, promising results have been obtained. The results indicate that beliefs of smokers about the damages of tobacco use on human health, taxation and anti-tobacco information policies are more effective factors on current smokers that make them thinking to quit smoking. Also, the results of the study point out that tobacco use ratio of Turkey in 2016 will decrease when compared to 2012.