Load forecasting methods and an appplication for Ankara central metropolitan area by using regression analysis

In this study, load forecasting methods are analysed and regression analysismethod is applied for load forecasting of Ankara central metropolitan area. Ageneral information about the load forecasting is given and importance of the loadforecasting on the system planning is pointed. Also an overview of the electricitysystem of Türkiye is represented and the total energy need is investigated. Inaddition the load forecasting methodolgy and the methods that used for the loadforecasting, are investigated. The electricity system of Ankara is represented and ageneral information of the present situation of the system is given. Three differentapproach by using the past six year?s data, the load forecasting for Ankara untilyear 2010 is made. For the first approach the maximum values of the load for eachyear, in the second one the consumption of the energy in the day which the load ismaximum, in the third approach the total consumption of energy for years istaken for forecasting the future year?s load for Ankara. All of the threeapproaches are compared with the present real values and the forecastingpercentage errors are found.Science Code : 905Key Words : Load Forecasting, Regression AnalysisPage Number : 112Adviser : Prof. Dr. M. Cengiz TAPLAMACIOĞLU