Yurt içi denizyolu kuru yük taşımacılığı pazarı: Model kullanımı ile tahmin geliştirme

This dissertation aims to reveal the demand variables in the domestic dry cargo shipping market, investigate their relations and develop demand forecasting models. The shipping industry performs in industrial markets and the characteristics of demand in industrial markets are complex. When the environmental impact of the shipping industry is added to this complexity, it becomes evident that there is a need for a demand-oriented marketing support system. This support will reduce the imbalances between supply and demand, help to identify needs and provide marketing information to guide industry actors and decision makers. The main motivation of this dissertation is to establish and provide a multi-perspective demand forecast support and an indicative process for the domestic dry cargo shipping market. The study was carried out in three stages and both qualitative and quantitative methods were used during the research. In the first phase, forecasting models of domestic dry cargo shipping were developed by ARIMA, MLP, LSTM, NARX and Hybrid ARIMA_MLP models and comparisons of these models were made. In the second phase, the variables compiled from shipping and industrial marketing literature were mapped to obtain geographical and market specific variables. The last phase consisted of a field study that provides a model for domestic dry cargo shipping demand.