Master'sOpen AccessEN
Forecasting toursim income of Türkiye
Tourism is regarded as important to the global financial system because of its significant benefits for improving the economy and creating various opportunities such as jobs, developing economic growth, and also facilitating cultural exchange between both foreigners and citizens, Tourism income is defined as the total amount spent in Turkey on individual and package tours by foreigners and citizens living abroad (excluding real estate expenditures, repair-maintenance expenses for residences, durables, transfers, etc.). Tourism income includes the amount spent on consumer goods and services, as well as personal belongings, in preparation for and during tourist trips; it covers any costs incurred by the visitor. This can include standard products like lodging or meals, as well as public transportation, but it can also include valuables (like artwork) and consumer durables like buying small goods for personal use, souvenirs, and gifts for family and friends, as well as all personal care products, and so on., Tourism income contributes significantly to the Turkish economy's revenue. That is why forecasting tourism revenue in the future is critical. Time series forecasting methods such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing, hold winter-differential evolution algorithm (HW-DEA), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System were used in this study to forecast tourism income from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜK), and the results were compared using the test performance measure Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) to determine the best model for the data. When compared to the other models, the results show that ANFIS outperforms with the lowest RMSE.
