2003 Irak Savaşı sırasında Polonya kamuoyunun ülkenin dış politikasının belirlenmesindeki rolü

Thesis examines the role of public opinion in Polish foreign policy making during war in Iraq in years 2003 - 2008. In March 2003 Government of Poland made a decision to contribute military forces to the United States led invasion of Iraq and did not try to convince the public opinion about rightfulness of its decision. Majority of the Polish voters opposed national involvement in the invasion, however failed to influence official government decision in the present case. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to further understand the circumstances under which democratic government ignored the public opinion in its foreign policy decision making. Thesis argues that five conditions had power to increase willingness of ignoring the public by government and influenced decision of taking part in Iraqi intervention. Namely, these variables are: perceptions of international gains, elite consensus, issue salience, timing of the next elections and perceiving decision about intervention as a crisis situation. None of these variables alone is enough to explain decision of Polish government, because these factors are closely related with each other. If International gains relevant to influence of country on international arena are increasing, then elite consensus is more likely to occur. On the other hand, elite consensus and lack of debates and discussion may result with low issue salience. In situation, when elections are not in close future, then pursuing a divergent from public opinion policy is more likely to happen.