Turkey's maritime strategy in the context of the increasing importance of the seas and sea power in the 21st century: A sea power analysis model proposal

Throughout history, seas have played an essential role in every aspect of social life, from culture to security, lifestyle to country borders, and livelihood to foreign policy. Therefore, rising power and achieving dominance in the seas are integral parts of states' economic and military strategies. Alongside the effect of globalization and technological progress in the 21st century, the scope of the profits and benefits of the seas provided by states has expanded considerably, making the seas critical areas of competition and interest for the 21st-century. The increasing importance of the seas makes the power components of the states in this area an important part of their national power. Sea power, including the naval forces, constitutes an important power element that affects the roles of states in the global system with the strategic competitive advantages that it provides. This study aims to determine the changing importance of the seas in the 21st-century and the maritime strategies of the states with significant sea power around the world in general and in particular, to present a sea power analysis model through analyzing Turkey's 21st-century sea power and maritime strategy. The components of sea power were examined with a dual distinction in terms of military and economics, and the criteria required for a state to have an advanced sea power were determined by conducting a comprehensive literature review. The weight of importance of these criteria, which are used in the evaluation of the sea power capability of the states, were determined by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method-one of the multicriteria decision-making methods (MCDM). The data used in developing the sea power analysis model were obtained from the opinions knowledge and experiences of a total of 44 experts consisting of academics, professionals, government agencies, and sector representatives working in the relevant field. The study found that the most important criterion affecting both military and commercial sea power is a maritime policy with a significance level of 0.2794 and 0.2194, respectively. In military sea power, creation of the navy infrastructure using national Technologies and technology criteria were the second and third in rank respectively; sustainable maritime economy and technology criteria were the second and third in rank, respectively in commercial sea power. Consequently, within the framework of the analyses carried out, the relevant literature, the reports examined, the strategic documents, and the data obtained from the expert groups formed, policies were recommended for the development of Turkey's sea power. Keywords: AHP, Maritime Strategies, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Naval Forces, Sea