Afet Risk Azaltımı Bağlamında Doğal Afetler ve Dış Yardımlar İlişkisinin Analizi

This study examines the impact of past foreign aid on populations affected by natural disasters for 25 developing countries that submitted voluntary progress reports to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). In this context, it analyzes the role of adaptive capacity deficit as a representation of disaster risk reduction mechanisms. The study estimates the period 2000-2023 for the 25 countries using panel data analysis techniques. Cointegration analysis results show that past foreign aid, per capita income, adaptive capacity deficit, urbanization rate, labor force participation, and direct fixed capital investment (FDI) are cointegrated with the population affected by natural disasters in the long term. DOLS-MG, FMOLS, CCR, and DOLS estimator results reveal that past foreign aid, per capita income, urbanization rate, and FDI are negatively correlated with the population affected by natural disasters. Adaptive capacity deficit and labor force participation rates were also found to have negative effects on the population affected by disasters. The findings show that past foreign aid has mitigated the impact of disasters by strengthening infrastructure and superstructure. Estimates indicate that economic growth, along with fixed capital investment and urbanization, supports development, thereby creating disaster-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, policies that promote sustainable growth and foreign investment, along with environmentally friendly urbanization strategies, are crucial for limiting the impact of future disasters and reducing vulnerability.