Investigation of the effects of a potential earthquake in Aksaray province through simulation modeling

Earthquakes are natural disasters that can severely impact human life. Although their effects can vary depending on soil characteristics, in some cases, the intensity of an earthquake can lead to significant loss of life and property. In the context of disaster management, effective planning of risk and crisis management is a crucial approach aimed at protecting the community from negative impacts and ensuring the efficient use of resources. While literature reviews emphasize that it is not possible to predict earthquakes in advance, preventive measures can help minimize material damage and socio-economic losses. In this regard, regional managers bear significant responsibility. A significant portion of the loss of life and property caused by disasters in our country results from earthquakes, and two main approaches based on stochastic principles and conceptual structures are commonly used for such disasters. In this study, a simulation model using stochastic and conceptual methods was developed with ARENA software, and an earthquake scenario for the region was created. While no detailed triage prediction analysis has been conducted within the framework of disaster management in Aksaray Province, this study conducted a simulation model for 11 central districts of Aksaray and performed a prioritization analysis for casualties in the event of a potential earthquake. The parameters used in the ARENA simulation model were based on the soil profiles, building coefficients, and population density of the respective districts, in order to estimate potential damage and losses. The consistency ratio of the main criteria (geological, structural, environmental, and socio-economic factors) in the study area is 0.044, determined using the AHP method. According to the simulation results, the earthquake scenario outcomes were categorized into four groups based on triage priorities: critical injuries (T1), delayed injuries (T2), minor injuries (T3), and fatalities (T4). This study presents the first earthquake scenario developed for Aksaray Province, based on a conceptual structure grounded in stochastic principles.