European Green Deal and its effects on Türkiye

The climate crisis has become one of the most significant threats facing humanity. Addressing and adapting to climate change has become inevitable not only in the environmental field but across all sectors. In this struggle for mitigation and adaptation, international agreements and treaties hold a crucial place. In this context, the European Union (EU) published the "European Green Deal" in 2019 as a key strategic policy document aimed at global environmental sustainability and a carbon-neutral economy. Under this deal, the EU aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and to become a carbon-neutral continent by 2050. This transformation process encompasses a wide range of sectors, including energy, industry, agriculture, transportation, and finance. As a candidate country and a major trading partner of the EU, Türkiye is directly affected by this transformation. The purpose of this thesis is to present the general framework, goals, and components of the European Green Deal and to evaluate Türkiye's position, potential risks, and opportunities in this process. In particular, the thesis analyzes the situation of carbonintensive sectors in Türkiye's export structure and their capacity for adaptation within the framework of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In this regard, the study aims to reveal the structural transformation requirements Türkiye faces in terms of both environmental sustainability and economic competitiveness. The methodology employed includes literature review, descriptive analysis, and scenario-based estimations. Using data from national and international institutions, economic and sectoral cost estimates were generated under three different scenarios (full compliance, partial compliance, and non-compliance) for Türkiye's carbon-intensive sectors. The analyses indicate that due to the inadequacy of carbon pricing mechanisms, the non-operational status of the emission trading system, and limited technological transformation capacity, Türkiye faces various risks in the CBAM compliance process. However, it is also determined that these risks can be transformed into opportunities through green financing mechanisms, energy efficiency investments, and environmentally focused incentive policies.