Analysis of the impacts of the anticipated great Marmara earthquake on settlement areas and demographic structure in the district of Gemlik

Since the mid-20th century, the urbanization process in Turkey has accelerated, with significant migration from rural to urban areas resulting in considerable population concentrations in cities. This rapid population growth has led to unplanned and irregular urban expansion. During this unregulated growth, agricultural lands, forests, coastal areas, water basins, flood plains, and landslide-prone zones have been opened up for construction. In many cases, buildings in these areas have been constructed without proper supervision, and illegal developments have become widespread, leaving cities vulnerable to natural disasters. Consequently, the emergence of substandard building stock poses high risks to both human life and economic assets. Although Turkey is located in a seismically active zone, this reality is often overlooked in urbanization policies. The neglect of geological, environmental, and similar analyses during site selection and planning processes exacerbates the impacts of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Despite the fact that the Marmara Region lies directly on the active North Anatolian Fault Line, a comprehensive and science-based earthquake safety policy has yet to be established across the country. Therefore, settlement planning must take the earthquake reality into account, and decisions should be made in a way that minimizes the potential impacts of such disasters.