New product selection with multi-criteria decision-making and simulation based on stock

Today, with the increase in competition conditions, the decisions of the enterprises in the field of production are gaining importance. When a new product is to be included in the production process, managers are faced with many questions such as which product to choose, what the production amount and cost will be. In this study, the preselection of the products that can be included in the product mix of a business operating in the cosmetics and cleaning products sector with multi-criteria decision making methods and the final selection by simulation were carried out. The criterion weights of the products were determined with AHP. It was found that the most important criteria were predicted demand (0.351), selling price (0.216) and cost (0.180), respectively. With TOPSIS, the alternatives were ranked according to the criteria weights determined. The simulation study of the production processes was carried out by choosing natural multi-purpose cleaning alternatives in the first place and natural liquid soap alternatives in the second place. The simulation was carried out using the Arena Rockwell program. Simulation results; It gives information about production cost, holding cost, sales revenue, sales loss amounts. In order to reach the most appropriate solution of these values, scenarios were created in the Process Analyzer application of the Arena program and the results were recorded. As a result of these results, the preselected alternatives were compared according to their cost and sales status. It has been shown that natural multi-purpose cleaning production is a better choice than natural liquid soap. Natural multi-purpose cleaning product was chosen as the final choice.