Determinations of macro factors affecting COVID-19 case numbers and fatality rates

The COVID-19 pandemic which emerged in the last days of 2019 and affected the whole world simultaneously in a short period of time and unfortunately caused the deaths of millions of people, undoubtedly occupies an important place among the events that marked the 21st century and the history of pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic goes beyond being a threat to public health and deeply affects economic, political, social and cultural life. Prevalence and impact of the disease was quite heterogeneous around the world. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 has been high in Europe and high-income countries, but limited in Africa and lower-middle and low-income countries. Asia, where it originated, has been much less affected than Europe and is similar to the American continent. In contrast, the case fatality rate is high in the American continent and upper-middle-income countries, but low in Asia-Oceania and high-income countries. The case fatality rate is almost the same in Europe and Africa, where the prevalence is highest and lowest. The prevalence and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is highly complex. It is of great importance to identify the main macro-level factors underlying the heterogeneity observed in the prevalence and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to protect public health, optimize the use of health services and resources, and then take the necessary measures for the sustainability of the economic, social and global structure. In this context, the aim of this thesis is to identify the main macro-level factors affecting the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the framework of demography, economy, health sector capacity and financing, social, governance and development levels, mobility, globalization, environmental conditions and public health. For this purpose, 135 countries were divided into seven groups based on income level and geographical location. In this way, it is aimed to identify the common and differentiating determinants of the number of cases and fatalities across groups of countries. The study is considered to be a significant contribution to the literature in terms of the breadth of country coverage and the diversity and multiplicity of factors used. As a result of 238 equations estimated using the least squares method, socio-economic and demographic factors are very important in explaining the pandemic, and differentiating and common factors are revealed on the basis of country groups. In general, it is concluded that human development, international mobility, income and population density are important determinants for the number of COVID-19 cases per hundred thousand people, while income and economic globalization are important determinants for the case fatalities rate. The positive effect of income on prevalance is reversed to a negative effect for the case fatality rate.