COVID-19 virüs pandemisinde haftalık döngünün kökeni ve sosyo-ekonomik faktörlerle ilişkisinin araştırılması

The Covid-19 virus, which started in China in 2019 and affected the whole world, has caused a global pandemic. Looking at the worldwide data of this pandemic, the number of daily cases appears to have a weekly cycle that is underestimated as an artifact of the number of daily tests administered. In this thesis study, a new model is developed to calculate the daily infection numbers from daily case numbers by using the Weibull distribution and the natural characteristics of the COVID-19 virus. According to the results obtained, it is found that the number of daily cases has a real weekly cycle. It has been determined that the daily infection numbers calculated in this weekly cycle are minimum on weekdays. According to the analysis by the new methos, these weekly minimums are controlled by socio-economic factors such as human development index and annual national income per capita. During the ascending and descending phases of the pandemic, the weekly minimum shifts from Monday to Friday, exposing the presence of two separate environments for the transmission of the virus among people: working and social. Moreover, the data reveal a variable rather than a fixed reproduction number. As a result, the model we developed in this study successfully identifies the socio-economic factors as the effectors of the progression of the pandemic by taking into account the time of infection for the first time in the literature and is expected to guide the future pandemic studies and pandemic, itself.