Loss estimation analysis with earthquake simulation istanbul bakirkoy province

Disasters are analysed in two different groups as natural and human. Earthquakes, which are among the disasters with material and moral destructive effects, cause great loss of life and injuries. Today, despite the developments in technology, the effects of earthquakes cannot be predicted, but are estimated. The use of simulation among the prediction methods allows different scenarios to be created and high reliability results to be obtained. With the earthquake scenarios created, it is possible to take measures to minimise the destructive effects of the earthquake, to provide medical assistance to earthquake victims, especially search and rescue activities, and to plan the capacity of their basic needs. In this context, a simulation model has been created in Arena Simulation Package programme for the expected earthquake in Istanbul. The model consists of two stages. In the first stage, stochastic earthquake scenarios with a magnitude ranging between 6 and 7.5 were created in Bakırköy district of Istanbul province, and loss estimation analysis was carried out by classifying the population into three groups as dead, injured or unaffected depending on the level of earthquake impact of the buildings in Bakırköy district. In the second stage, search and rescue and first aid teams were planned for the neighbourhoods in Bakırköy district, and the evacuation times of the earthquake victims were calculated by ensuring that the teams were dispatched to the nearest neighbourhood after completing their duties at their current location. As a result of the findings obtained, it was determined that an earthquake with an average magnitude of 6.7 occurred. It was determined that 42% of the buildings in the neighbourhoods of Bakırköy district were not affected by the earthquake, 25% were slightly damaged, 23% were moderately damaged, 7% were heavily damaged and 3% were destroyed. In terms of the effects of the earthquake, it was analysed that 61% of the neighbourhood population in Bakırköy district was not affected by the earthquake, 38% were injured and 1% died.