Development of greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction scenarios with well to wheel concept for passenger cars

Road transportation is substantially contributing to climate change. Considering greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, which directly affect climate change, is largely driven by passenger car operations in road transportation and passenger cars constitute more than 50% of registered vehicles in Turkey, Turkey should focus to reduce GHG emission from passenger car operations. In this context, the proposed thesis covers the impacts of exchanging new vehicle technologies and introducing alternative fuel/energy types, through implementing different End of Life Vehicles (ELVs) regulations, on decreasing GHG emissions for passenger cars. Four scenarios are determined based on potential ELVs regulations. Scenario A is created according to not implementing any ELVs regulation. Scenario B is selected based on implementing Turkey's 2003 ELVs regulation again for two years. In scenario C, the ELVs regulation is broadened to be perpetual. Finally, scenario D is designed to have more electrical car contribution till the end of 2023, as planned in EU. A Well-to-Wheel (WTW) analysis, the common Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology for transportation, is adapted in this study to evaluate the full life cycle of fuel/energy consumed in each scenario. The life cycle inventory part of LCA is conducted by a statistical model which forecasts the fuel/energy consumption till the end of 2023 based on last five year averages and increasing trends. GaBi 6.0 software program is used as the LCA tool for Life cycle impact assessment and CML 2001 is used as LCA methodology. GHG emissions change is assessed according to global warming potential as the impact category indicator. The results of WTW analysis reveal that 1.0% reduction in global warming potential will be achieved by applying a ELVs regulation for a limited time period in Turkey. The reduction will be 2.8% if the regulation is perpetual. Furthermore, the global warming potential can be decreased by 3.4% if the electrical car contribution will be increased to 4.2% by the end of 2023 in Turkey, as oppose to be 0.8%, if no action is taken.