Doğu anadolu fayı güneybatı bölümünün mekansal ve zamansal sismik tehlike analizi

Türkiye is one of the most seismically active regions in the world due to its location at the intersection of the Eurasian, Arabian, and African tectonic plates. The country's tectonic regime is primarily governed by two major strike-slip fault systems, namely the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) and the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). On February 6, 2023, southeastern Türkiye experienced a devastating earthquake doublet, with moment magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.6, occurring nine hours apart along different segments of the EAF system. These events caused widespread destruction across 11 provinces, affecting millions of people and significantly altering the stress regime of the region. This study investigates the seismic behavior of the southwestern part of the EAF system before and after the 2023 earthquakes to understand the seismic hazard potentials. To achieve this, a combined approach was adopted involving Coulomb stress modeling, b-value analysis, and geodetic deformation assessment. Coulomb stress change calculations were performed to evaluate stress transfer and potential triggering in adjacent fault segments. In addition, the b-values, derived from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, were used to detect spatiotemporal stress accumulation and release zones, with additional sub-period analysis revealing the impact of the 2023 events and background seismicity of the region. To complement these two approaches, coseismic deformation was analyzed using the InSAR technique, observing displacement patterns across the affected region. Additionally, strain rate fields were reviewed from regional GPS data to identify areas of increased tectonic stress. By integrating these geodetic and seismological datasets, the study highlights overlapping regions characterized by high strain accumulation, low b-values, and positive coulomb stress changes. The convergence of these datasets contributes a comprehensive framework for understanding tectonic stress evolution and improving future seismic hazard assessments along the southern and southwestern parts of the EAF system.