Evaluation of arid / semi-arid area afforestations in the Aegean Region in terms of sustainable forestry and investigation of the effects of climate change on these afforestations with the help of models

According to the results of variance analysis applied to the data related to the variables of average height, average root stump diameter (d0.30), average crown height (crown length) (m) and average last year shoot length (cm), which are quantitative parameters determined in the experimental areas taken from the afforestation areas planted in the same year, i.e. of the same age in semi-arid and arid zone afforestation areas in Afyonkarahisar and Kütahya provinces, it was determined that there were statistically significant differences at the 99% confidence level among the afforestation areas in terms of these quantitative parameters. According to the findings, the number of living individuals in 1969 individuals measured in a total of 38 sample areas in Afyonkarahisar and Kütahya provinces was 1681. Of the 1681 individuals, 1541 were healthy and 140 were unhealthy. In Afyonkarahisar province, 853 (%86.16) of 990 individuals measured in selected afforestation areas are alive, the number of healthy individuals is 767 (%89.92) and the number of unhealthy individuals is 86 (%10.08). In Kütahya province, 828 (%84.58) of 979 individuals measured are alive, 774 (%93.48) of these individuals are healthy and 54 (%6.52) are unhealthy. As a result of Duncan Test applied to all quantitative characters in general, Dişli and Gevrekseydi afforestation areas constitute the first two groups, while Andız, Pusan and Geven afforestation areas constitute the last group. This situation can be shown as the fact that the afforestation areas in Kütahya region are generally established in shallower and superficial stony land, whereas the afforestation areas in Afyonkarahisar are established in more protected and more productive areas closer to the forest regions. All areas in Afyonkarahisar and Kütahya regions where semi-arid and arid zone afforestation areas constituting the research area are located were digitized and the possible effects of global warming were examined with the help of models created through scenarios and the areal changes were determined. For this purpose, a total of 11 Bioclimatic Variables were used and as a result of the analysis of the created models, it was revealed that the most important variables revealing the effects of global warming were temperature and precipitation factors with 98.74% and 96.33% confidence levels. According to the applied global warming scenarios, within the scope of the applied models, in the research area, according to the SSPs 245 process, it is expected that semiarid areas will increase to 176310 ha, arid areas to 132770 ha in 2060, and according to the same scenario, semiarid areas to 247870 ha and arid areas to 193430 ha in 2100. According to the SSPs 585 scenario, it is expected that semiarid areas will increase to 271750 ha, arid areas to 256460 ha in 2060, and according to the same scenario, semiarid areas to 344879 ha and arid areas to 329160 ha in 2100. However, according to the SSPs 585 scenario, it is seen that 3154 ha of desert vegetation will be formed in the region in 2100, where afforestation will not be possible in the research area and where completely different ecosystem conditions prevail.