Assessment of the hydrological impacts of Palandöken Dam water potential under climate change conditions

This thesis focuses on the impact of increasing global population and climate change on water resources management. The primary objective of the study is to develop a hydrological model of the Palandöken Dam Basin, located within the boundaries of Çat district in Erzurum Province, and to estimate the basin's future water potential using climate projection data produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Accordingly, the study aims to assess the dam's capacity to meet the domestic water demand of Aziziye, Palandöken, and Yakutiye districts, as well as its ability to supply irrigation water to the Sakalıkesik Plain. The hydrological model of the basin was developed using the HBV-Light software. The model was calibrated and validated using streamflow data from the Lezgi Stream gauging station (D21A116), precipitation and temperature data from the Erzurum Airport meteorological station (17096), and snow data from the Çat snow observation station (D21K008). The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficients for the calibration and validation periods were calculated as 0.77 and 0.73, respectively. To assess the effects of climate change, climate projection data for the period 2025–2100 were used under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The analysis revealed increasing trends in annual peak flow and total water volume, along with a shift toward earlier peak flow dates throughout the 21st century.