An application on forecasting the rate of return of financial market intruments

For all rational investors, making profit and maintaining it in a stable manner is the biggest goal. As with every goal, it is not possible to reach the goal in just one way. Investors can achieve the goal of obtaining stable returns by using different methods. In this context, technical analysis or fundamental analysis methods can be used in general. On the other hand, they can try to achieve this goal by blending both methods or by constructing another method. Some of these methods work in the short term, while some work in the long term. Some investors who are proponents of fundamental analysis choose to invest using only fundamental analysis, while others support fundamental analysis with technical analysis according to the decision of when to enter or exit the stock. Supporters of technical analysis, on the other hand, think that all information is hidden in the price and it is more accurate to only trade technical analysis. It should not be forgotten that as long as there are parties using these two methods and considering that the decisions taken affect the market, the market will be formed by the decisions taken by both methods. In the study, a decision-making classification was tried to be made by scaling moving averages, one of the indicators used in technical analysis, and supported by logistic regression. It has been tried to test whether the decisions taken yield more returns than the indicator index between the years 2010-2020, and the system was tried to be automated by using the R programming language with the help of today's technology.