Analysing Risk of Cyber Threat to Ship Electronic Navigation Auxilary Systems with Bayesian Network Method

Cybercrime is considered to be the fastest spreading type of crime worldwide. In every branch of the industry measures such as training of personnel, developing risk assessment procedures and technological investments are taken against cyber threats, material and moral damages of which can reach substantial amounts. This study is based on analysing of subject in technology aspect and examination of cyber vulnerability probability of Positing System, AIS, ECDIS and Automation, Communication, Computer Systems which are parts of ship navigation auxiliary systems. Literature review, experimental works, cyber incidents occurred in maritime sector, recommendations of institutions and organizations are taken into account to form nodes of a Bayesian Network that includes above said systems. The Bayesian Network, which has been used in many fields, including accident analysis, in the last half century, enables to reveal the relationship between factors that cause the event (accident) in the most realistic way by using the conditional probability approach. Conditional probability values of the Bayesian Network has been determined by 8 different experts. As a result, it is identified that ECDIS and Automation, Communication, Computer Systems are most cyber vulnerable parts of the ship. Recommendations regarding to equipments and content of system infrastructure are expressed to increase cyber security degree of ships.