İç çatışma: Terörizm ve kinin rolü

In order to understand the role of grievance and terrorism in state-rebel conflicts, as an extension to Gibilisco's (2016) manuscript, a two-stage sequential game between two players is designed. Addition to having explained late separations of rebel groups and separations of all groups with varying initial grievance levels, equilibria of this game produced 2 testable hypotheses: First, use of terrorism enhances the chances of getting a concession or negotiation. Second, the conflicts in which more terrorist attacks are conducted are likely to finish earlier. Having tested the latter one, I finished my thesis by attempting to forecast the duration of ongoing conflicts, making use of contemporary machine learning algorithms.