Identity and international linkage in post-Soviet regime trajectories: Ukraine and Belarus in comparative perspective

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine and Belarus's trajectories diverged considerably. This research examines the determinants underlying these divergent paths, with a specific emphasis on the interaction among identity, international linkage, and consequently the influence of domestic factors. The pro-Western and pro-Russian schism that divides Ukraine from east to west generates a battleground for external influence. This dissonance within oneself impedes the consolidation of democracy and autocracy. In contrast, the Soviet-influenced homogeneity of Belarusians' identity renders it vulnerable to Russian influence, which has strengthened the authoritarian regime of President Lukashenko. Significantly, domestic actors assume a pivotal role. They utilize external connections to galvanize support for their preferred political course in Ukraine. Those in Belarus who are in alliance with Russia exploit the common identity as a means to amass public support for the regime led by Lukashenko. This study illuminates how post-Soviet political development is influenced by a combination of internal and external factors, as well as the endeavors of domestic actors vying for public support, through an examination of these contrasting cases.