Climate change resilience scenario: Bursa field study in the framework of increasing flood risk

The impact of climate change, which has increased with industrialization, is being felt more and more. Climate change, which is a global problem, has a great role in the increase of disasters such as drought, flood and storm. Cities have become places where the effects of climate change are frequently seen and disasters are experienced. Especially unplanned construction, which is the result of rapid urbanization, causes an increase in the size of disasters that increase as a result of climate change. The effects of climate change on cities and reduction studies should be given more space in the literature. There is a need to increase and develop studies on climate change and flood risk in the literature, especially in our country. The literature in the world and in Turkey has been researched and also researches on the reduction policies and practices of countries are included. Within the scope of the thesis, the subject of flood disasters increased by climate change and the climate change resilience scenario in the city of Bursa were studied. Sudden precipitation in the city passes to the surface flow and causes flood disasters due to the excess of impermeable surfaces in the city. Plans should be made for resilience in cities against the flood effects of climate change. The aim of this study is to analyze the current flood risk in a selected area for the city of Bursa, to develop resilience scenario suggestions for risky regions and to evaluate the flood risk reduction status of the scenarios by including resilience scenarios in the analysis. Within the scope of the study, examples from the world, Turkey and the city of Bursa about the flood risk increased by climate change are given and a literature review about urban practices is included. Analytical hierarchy process method was used for the selected area in Bursa city and weighted flood risk analysis was performed in ArcGIS, a geographic information system program. As a result of the risk analysis, scenario suggestions were developed for the risky regions in the area covering 19 neighborhoods in the city of Bursa. Scenario suggestions (green drainage, urban green area and permeable surface, cistern) were digitized in the ArcGIS program and risk analysis was made after the scenario. After the risk analysis, the risk situations in the neighborhoods were re-evaluated. As a result, in the risk assessment, besides the geographical factors, the effect of the construction in the urban area and the ground permeability feature on the flood risk can be read. It has been observed that the slope factor is effective for the selected area in Bursa, but an effective reduction in flood risk can be achieved with scenario suggestions.