Assessment of drought risk due to climate change: Climate scenarios for Eskişehir province

Climate change has emerged as a critical global issue, significantly impacting both natural and social systems. One of the most noticeable consequences of these changes is drought, which poses severe threats to water resources, agricultural productivity, ecosystem health, and social structures. In this context, Eskişehir province is particularly vulnerable due to its increasing threat of drought. This thesis aims to evaluate the climate risks associated with drought in Eskişehir province from 2021 to 2100. For this purpose, future drought risk maps were produced using the MPI-ESM1.2-HR global climate model across four emission scenarios. The risk analysis approach comprised a detailed exploration of three key components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The relative significance of these components was assessed through expert opinions, employing the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The resulting maps for four distinct periods—2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100—offer a comprehensive overview of the drought risks that Eskişehir may face. This thesis aims to inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies by highlighting the region's vulnerability to drought. The findings tend to serve as valuable insights for local governments and policymakers.