İstanbul'un ilçelerinin depreme dayanıklılıklarının VZA temelli modeller kullanılarak değerlendirilmesi

The recent earthquakes that hit the southeastern region of Türkiye have caused severe damage and casualties while also raising awareness about disaster management. According to scientists, it is likely that a strong earthquake hit Istanbul, which is the most populated city in Türkiye. Therefore, Istanbul needs to be well prepared for such a disaster that might occur. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a useful tool to evaluate the relative efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs) in various managerial areas including disaster management. There exist some studies in the context of disaster management based on DEA models. However, the input-output selection in the existing studies is not appropriate. Moreover, DEA models used in these studies are not proper for a complete and fair ranking of DMUs. Therefore, more robust studies in disaster management can be conducted by using common-weight DEA-based models which provide a practical ranking of DMUs disregarding excessive weight flexibility of the related factors. Thus, this thesis aims to evaluate the earthquake vulnerability of Istanbul's districts using common-weight DEA models, which enable incorporating interval data. Built-up area, building stock, and estimated ground motions are taken as inputs while expected disaster losses and damages are used as outputs. The analysis demonstrates that the most vulnerable district to earthquakes is Fatih while the least vulnerable district is Şile. Moreover, the findings indicate that the European side of Istanbul is more vulnerable to earthquakes than the Asian side of Istanbul.