The effects of random shocks on maritime trade in the Black Sea Region

As an important component of the blue economy concept, maritime transportation is the main contractor of the global supply chain and the most preferred mode of transportation. However, it is a highly sensitive and risky sector against unexpected events such as developments in the world economy, volatility in freight prices, financial crises, political events and epidemics. The aim of this study is to identify the effects of random shocks on the ports of the Black Sea countries. The data set used for the purpose of the study is obtained from the statistics of the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure General Directorate of Maritime Affairs and the International Monetary Fund. Qualitative data analysis, frequency analysis, Census X-13 ARIMA analysis and regression analysis with dummy variables were used to analyze the data. According to the analysis, the number of ships arriving in Chornomorsk, Odessa and Pivdennyi ports, export volume and import volume increased after the Russian-Ukrainian War. In 2009, Turkey's maritime exports and imports to and from the Black Sea countries decreased due to the impact of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. After the Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey's foreign trade with Russia increased by 73% in 2023, reaching a peak, while with Ukraine it decreased by 61% and reached the bottom. There is seasonality in Turkey's exports with Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia and imports with Russia, Ukraine.