Key macroeconomic drivers of inflation in higher education in Türkiye

This research clarifies an important issue: What are the main macroeconomic drivers of higher education inflation in Turkey over the last 20 years? Besides its direct effect on the economy as a whole, the rise in costs greatly restrains higher education access, ultimately affecting a large part of the population. It imposes a heavy financial burden on young people and their families, in some cases for decades, and may deepen social and economic inequality. Such an increase not only affects equality of opportunity but also impairs innovation, social mobility, and sustainable development in the knowledge economy. In this regard, the study determines the link between the inflation in higher education and some of the major macroeconomic variables: general inflation, real GDP, exchange rates, and real wages. This study uses macroeconomic annual data from 2005 to 2023, employing a combination of unit root testing, cointegration testing, VECM modelling, Granger causality, and regression analysis to explore the short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships among these variables and education inflation. The empirical analysis indicates that real GDP and exchange rate variations are statistically significant variables in determining higher education inflation in Turkey, while changes in average real wages are not found to be a significant variable in determining higher education price dynamics. This implies that while macroeconomic growth and external shocks, such as currency depreciation, contributed to the increasing price of higher education, household income levels did not recover at the same rate, thus compounding affordability concerns. Over the past two decades, Turkey experienced various macroeconomic challenges, including high inflation, exchange rate volatility, and structural imbalances. During this period, the cost of higher education continued to increase sharply and public concern over the affordability and availability of tertiary education deepened. However, empirical research on the economic drivers of higher education inflation in Turkey is scarce. In this case, this study comes as a timely and worthwhile contribution to the empirical search for the macroeconomic determinants of education inflation. The results urge for the development of targeted policy interventions to curb inflation in the education sector. Otherwise, tuition cost will continue to be a barrier to entry and would undermine the country's efforts to access inclusive and equitable higher education, and undermine the country's human capital and long-term economic prospects.