Modeling of wetland water budget in case of kizilirmak deltaand assesment of climate change impacts

Wetlands are ecosystems that are sensitive to changes in hydrology because they contribute to hydrological processes such as water storage and evaporation, as well as feeding groundwater, controlling surface runoff, reducing flood risk and providing natural filtration of water. Therefore, characterizing the water budgets of wetlands is crucial for management and conservation. In this study, we investigate the water budget of the Kızılırmak Delta and the effect of climate change on the delta using three different CMIP-6 climate models selected under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SPP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The hydrological model was calibrated and validated for runoff based on daily data for the period 2011-2014 and 2015-2021, respectively (RMSE = 2.66, R2 = 0.68, and R=0.82, RMSE = 2.27, R2 = 0.62, and R=0.79). In the hydrological budget, the majority of precipitation returns to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration, while other components such as groundwater and surface runoff contribute to the water balance depending on local meteorological conditions. Under the SPP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, temperature increase is expected to range between 1.05°C and 7.13°C, precipitation is expected to decrease by 12% to 50%, and river runoff is expected to decrease by around 10%.