Econometric analysis of the impact of the logistics sector on foreign trade volume

For countries to achieve a good economic level and development, they need to engage in foreign trade. The logistics sector plays an important role in increasing foreign trade activities in the country. Investments in logistics infrastructure and government incentives for the logistics sector will lead to the development of the logistics sector. This development will also affect the foreign trade activities of the country. This study examines the impact of the logistics sector on foreign trade volume in Turkey. While transportation Revenues, the transportation and storage index, and the industrial production index variables were used to represent logistics, the foreign trade volume variable was used to represent foreign trade. In study, monthly data of the variables for the period from January 2009 to December 2022 were analyzed using the Eviews 12.0 software package. According to the analysis results, it was determined that the variables became stationary at the I (1) level. Then, the Johansen cointegration test was applied to determine the cointegration relationship between the series. According to the cointegration analysis, it was determined that there is at least one cointegration relationship between the foreign trade volume and the transportation revenues, transportation and storage index, and industrial production index. To determine the impact level od the variables on foreign trade, the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) estimator, which is a cointegration based regression test, was used. According to the regression test results, it was found that transportation revenues affect the foreign trade volume. It was determined that a %1 increase in transportation revenues would increase the foreign trade volume by %0,31. Therefore, it was concluded that logistics positively affects foreign trade. However, it was found that the transportation and storage index and the industrial production index have no effect on the foreign trade volume.