Model recommendation for determination of neighborhood scaleper hause fire risk premiums: Sakarya district example

In this study, it is aimed to measure total fire risks of all residences located in Adapazarı central district of Sakarya province, to develop regional fire risk maps with the help of geographic information systems and fire risks forecasts, and to calculate the amount of premium cost of fire insurance in case of when all the residences in the region are insured under fire insurance. Various activities, which are categorized in three stages, were organized in order to achieve the objectives of the study. In the first stage of the study, fire risk factors were investigated, and within the boundaries of this study, residential and regional characteristics that might be significant are tried to be detected by analyzing fire risk factors stated in literature. Detected risk factors have been presented to expert opinions and experts are asked to evaluate on an individual basis. A survey was prepared for the provision of primary data using the expert feedback. With the approval and support of Adapazarı municipality, the aforementioned survey was applied to a total of 4524 participants in 34 neighborhoods which constitute 76% of the total number of residences located in Adapazarı central district of Sakarya province. In the first stage of the study, fire reports of the residential fires in the region were obtained from the Directorate of Fire Department of Sakarya Metropolitan Municipality in order to provide the required data of the second stage and the obtained data are digitized to be used as statistics and to use for calculations. During the period of the study conducted all the data like population, housing, and the surface area regarding the neighborhoods of Adapazarı province are provided by TÜİK and municipality sources. In the second stage of the study, impact trend of the data on fire risk factors, which were identified at the first stage, is determined, grouped and weighting of the indicators is assured. Expert opinion is also advised with the primary and secondary data obtained within the scope of this study. Since the data obtained after this step is stated in different units, normalization has been provided to allow the data to be used in the calculation of total risk. In the second stage of the study, an index developed by using data collected and Earthquake Disaster Risk Index method (Davidson and Haresh, 1997; Taşkın, 2012) developed by Rachel Devidson (EDRI) is used in order to calculate house fire risk scores of the sample neighborhoods in Adapazarı. Lastly, fire risk maps are developed for Adapazarı using data collected and Geographical Information Systems. In the third stage of the study, residences under high risk and low risk are identified in accordance with fire risk scores calculated, and risk and fire insurance premiums are determined by using the primary and secondary data. The results of the study, evaluation and constraints are presented.