The effect of macroeconomic variables and expectation indices on BIST service index

There are three basic sectors of the economy: agriculture, industry and services. The service sector has accelerated its development by leaving other sectors behind with the development of technology and changes in needs. The reason for this is that the service sector provides more income than other sectors and its contribution to the economy is high. For this reason, investments in the sector have increased in the economies of developing countries as well as developed countries. In this study, it is attempted to investigate the influences of Borsa Istanbul Services Index (LXUHIZ), which is considered to be an indicator of Turkey's service revenues in the economy. In this study, it was used LVIX fear index, service confidence index (LHZGE), Brent oil price (LBRENT), unemployment (LISZLK) and inflation (LTUFE) data covering the period 01:2013-07:2023, which are considered to affect the services index. It was understood that the most appropriate model was the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by applying unit root test to the variables. According to the long-run results of the ARDL bounds test, it was concluded that a 1% increase in LVIX caused a 0.289% decrease in the LXUHIZ index, while a 1% increase in LISZLK caused a 1.208% decrease in the index. It was analysed that a 1% increase in LTUFE caused an increase of 1.604% on the index. Looking at the short-term results, a 1% increase in LVIX and LTUFE (-2) causes a decrease of 0.098% and 1.097%, respectively, in the LXUHIZ index. Looking at the 2 lags of LVIX, it is concluded that it is positively correlated with the LXUHIZ index and a 1% increase in LVIX (-2) leads to a 0.057% increase in the index.