Economic load distribution based on load and renewable energy resources forecast in microgrids

The demand for electrical energy is constantly increasing in the rapidly growing world, but the situation is not the same for fossil resources, which are still used extensively to meet this energy need. For this reason, the integration of renewable energy sources, whose popularity is increasing day by day, into energy networks has become important. Particularly, rapid developments in photovoltaic and wind power have played a major role in the development of the microgrid concept. Microgrids are structures that provide the energy needs of their loads through their distributed generation resources. Microgrids can be operated completely independently from the main grid, or they can also work in conjunction with an interconnected grid in order to meet the energy demand that distributed generation cannot respond. Conversely, in conditions where renewable generation is high, micro-grid excess demand can now provide economic income by transferring energy to the main grid. It is possible that there will be continuity problems in supplying energy to the loads, since the micro-grid loads mostly meet the energy needs with renewable sourced generation methods and these resources are dependent on weather conditions. Therefore, the estimation of the grid loads and the planning of the operation of the distributed generation resources in line with this estimation are important for sustainable power. In this study, short-term load estimation of a microgrid was made using historical load data and weather data. Statistical and machine learning-based predictions were evaluated with performance metrics and the lowest margin of error prediction algorithm was determined for this microgrid. In the continuation of the study, economic analyzes of the micro-grid with a load profile were made over different scenarios, and the situation that provides electricity production with the lowest cost was determined. The cash flow difference between the scenarios was observed by making an investment analysis for the micro-grid projected for twenty-five years. As a result of the study, it has been seen that the new micro grid designed produces energy more economically than the existing grid and pays off the investment cost in a short time.