Ölümcül sıcak hava dalgalarına karşı akıllı şehirlerin hazırlanma olanakları

Due to the anthropogenic climate crisis, extreme heatwave events in Türkiye are expected to increase significantly. This study employs the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) in conjunction with HUMIDEX to assess Türkiye's future climatic comfort. For this purpose, the outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model (GCM) were downscaled to 50 km using the RegCM4.4 regional climate model. Subsequently, HCI and HUMIDEX values for the summer and spring seasons were computed for two future periods, 2021–2050 and 2070–2099, with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 under two scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The findings revealed alarming increases in extreme heat events accompanied by dangerous HUMIDEX risks. To investigate further, this study further analyzed future extreme heatwaves using temperature-related extreme indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Outputs from two GCMs, MPI-ESM-MR and HadGEM2-ES, were downscaled to 50 km with RegCM4.4, and the indices were computed for 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicate that future heatwaves will be so severe and prolonged that they could lead to significant fatalities without smart precautions. This study finds the most promising solution in air-conditioned facilities, such as libraries, shopping malls, gyms which can function as cooling centers and accommodate solar panel installations on their rooftops to provide a safeguard in the event of a power outage.