Pandemi sonrası Türkiye gün öncesi piyasasında doğal gaz fiyatlarının elektrik fiyatlandırması üzerindeki gecikmeli etkilerinin analizi

This study investigates the correlation between natural gas and electricity prices in Türkiye, which has experienced significant spikes in natural gas prices due to the pandemic and regional conflicts. The determination of reference prices for electricity and natural gas in Türkiye is facilitated by transparent markets operated by the Energy Exchange. Using data from the EXIST transparency platform, this research employs regression techniques to determine the temporal relationship between abrupt increases in natural gas prices and their impact on electricity prices. Prior studies have shown that elevated natural gas prices affect electricity prices with a delay, depending on the proportion of natural gas in a country's energy supply. This research applies a similar methodology to assess the time-lag effect of natural gas prices on electricity prices within the Turkish energy market post-COVID-19. Metrics such as mean absolute error, mean square error, mean absolute percent error, and mean percent error validate the findings. The results demonstrate a eightyfive-day time lag in the correlation between natural gas and electricity prices in Türkiye. This delay improves forecasting accuracy by up to 16.17% in terms of error reduction.