Modelling of international tourism demand wi̇th panel data aproach: Sample of Antalya

With its rapid growth, tourism has become one of the most important industries in the world, and thus tourism incomes have begun to take an important role in the economy. With the enactment of the Law for the Encouragement of Tourism in 1982, tourism sector has developed rapidly in Turkey as well as in the world and has made great contributions to economic development of Turkey. Turkish tourism with no doubt owes its largest portion of income to Antalya, one of the most important tourist attracting cities in the world with the number of visitors exceeding 12 million in 2013 and Antalya continues to make a considerable contribution to the country's economy with its tourism incomes. In this study, the international tourism demand for Antalya, the major contributor to Turkish tourism, is modelled with the aim of increasing tourism incomes, aligning supply and demand and shaping future investments in the sector. In this context, tourist numbers of the countries sending the most tourists to Antalya and their numbers from 1996 to 2013 and its relationship with gross domestic product of the countries concerned, the price of Turkey in comparison with the country concerned, lagged tourist numbers, trend and seasonanl dummy variables were analyzed. Additionally, the models formed by using quarterly, deseasonalized, annual data were estimated by panel data approach. The predictive results are thought to contributed to the strategies that will be developed for sustainability of tourism demand towards Antalya the brand in the international tourism. Keywords: International tourism demand, Antalya, panel data approach