Investigation of the seismicity of the western anatolia by using poisson, exponential and gumbel extreme values distribution models

One of the most active earthquake zones in the world Alpine-Himalayan seismic zone located in Turkey, a country that is highly effective in terms of seismic activity. Active earthquake zones such as the North Anatolian Fault Zone, East Anatolian Fault Zone, Bitlis Thrust Zone located in our country and Graben Zones in Western Anatolia have produced many destructive earthquakes in the past and will cause great loss of life and property in future earthquakes. In order to minimize these destructive results, various statistical studies are aimed to determine earthquakes in advance. Western Anatolia region, which is one of the most active regions in Turkey, is seen as an area with dense population and high earthquake risk. For this reason, Western Anatolia region was divided into two main regions and earthquake probability was calculated by applying three different statistical models (Poisson model, Exponential distribution model and Gumbel extreme values model). The results obtained in the study were compared in terms of regions and models and the situations where the models were different or similar from each other were examined. Probability studies have shown that the results of three models are consistent for strong (Mw ≥ 6.0) and large (Mw ≥ 7.0) earthquakes. When the two regions and three methods are taken into consideration, it can be said that the earthquakes having a magnitude of Mw ≥ 4.0 are more likely to occur and the recurrence periods are shorter in the first region.