Political economy of tax evasion under probabilistic voting

Using a theoretical model of political competition, we study the conditions under which tax evasion persists as a political equilibrium outcome. In the model, voters belong to one of the two income classes: high (H) and low (L). Each member of a given income class receives the same income. There is an income tax levied at a flat rate. The tax proceedings are used to finance the single public good and the tax enforcement efforts, if any. Due to the sources of their income, some of the taxpayers from income class H can report their income as low. If there is any enforcement, it is to prevent those tax payers from under reporting. Both the equilibrium tax rate and equilibrium level of enforcement is determined endogenously, in the equilibrium of a two-party political competition game with probabilistic voting. The objective of each political party is to maximize its chance of an election victory. We found that in the ensuing political equilibrium neither party proposes any tax enforcement. This result is robust to variations in the (i) fraction of high income voters in the society, (ii) fraction of the high income voters who can evade, (iii) the cost of tax enforcement and, (iv) the relative political power of the two income classes. Keywords: Tax evasion, Election, Probabilistic Voting, Enforcement